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| Can Microsoft's entry into enhanced mail take down a giant? |
Call me crazy. Call me Ishmael. Call me Joshtradamus. Call
me something else (but not to my face).
I have made many a bold prediction in my day and I have to
say, many of them have come to fruition or are in the midst of unfolding as we
speak. While I am not 100% accurate in my prognostication, I have a pretty good
track record.
This next forecast is a ‘doozy’ but is not completely
unthinkable.
I feel Microsoft’s recent release of Outlook.com signals
the beginning of the end of Google as we know it. That’s right: I am saying the
world’s number one brand will fall as a result of Microsoft’s push into the
free cloud and email realm. It’s a realm where advertising dollars currently
rule.
I have some very strong indicators as to why I think this
will happen:
1. The Google cool factor and user base is not proprietary.
People have a choice. A lot of
people moved to Gmail because it wasn’t AOL and it didn’t have that stigma of
being a beginner’s email service. I even read an article years ago in a
staffing magazine that stated anyone applying for a position using AOL as their
main account was usually discounted immediately, primarily for not keeping up
with technology trends. Google have done a lot to grow their user based and
combating it will be a challenge. The integration of social media type features
via Google+ may have come a bit too late, and might have been a bit less
robust.
2. Outlook.com is intuitive and incorporates social media
functionality.
Here’s where it gets really
interesting. If you’ve ever held a job where you’ve used a PC on a daily basis,
you probably have used Microsoft Outlook in one form or another. So you know
how to use it already. Add to that the fact that this is definitely and
undeniably NOT Hotmail (although your Hotmail account will not be affected by
the new service if you want to keep it).
In fact, it is much more akin to
a social media aggregation platform on the cloud with email functionality. It’s
an interface where you can track pictures, emails, Twitter posts and Facebook
posts all in one thread. (Microsoft tested this in its soft launch of Windows 8
and Windows Phone.) Just think of it; you get all your news and conversations
on a topic with someone, or a group of people, all in one place. In the IT staffing industry, it opens up a unique way for recruiters to communicate with their candidates. No need to log
into four or more different sites to see where you sent them that link a couple
of days ago. It’s all in your Outlook.com account. That’s ‘Cool Factor+.’
3. Advertising is Google’s primary source of revenue.
Like I said before, Outlook.com
is not Hotmail. In fact the advertising that Microsoft will be selling on the
platform will be much like that found on Facebook; Off to the side and not in
between email messages.
Wait a minute did I just say
advertising? Yep! Google’s ‘bread and butter’ is threatened if Outlook.com
takes off. Now, Google does generate some revenue from its hundreds of apps,
but its lifeblood is advertising. Microsoft’s lifeblood is not. They have
gaming, the number one operating system in the world with a new launch that
brings all of this together, server, advertising, and more resources to make this whole
thing happen.
4. Outlook.com has already taken off.
Only a day after its launch, Outlook.com had one-million
users. That’s not to say it doesn’t have a long way to go. Then again, Gmail
just only recently surpassed Hotmail’s 360 million users by about 15% and has
been around since 2004. If all of the Hotmail users transfer over and the ‘wow
factor’ of a new service, that integrates into your OS on your PC and your
phone, AND aggregates all of your social media messaging, AND has all the
functionality of Gmail, AND pays your bills and walks the dog at three in the
morning (OK I get ahead of myself, that must be in rev 2.0); then Google could
be in for a world of hurt.
5. Google doles out email storage in increments, Outlook.com is
unlimited.
OK, both services offer 7+ GB of
space in the cloud and most of us will never come close to using all that
space. Google ups the amount of space available in increments of
one-one-millionth of a MB. Microsoft’s SkyDrive cloud technology offers users
unlimited email storage. There is a lot to be said for ‘unlimited.’
Microsoft’s biggest obstacle is that they have to overcome
email users’ reluctance to switch from something they already know and use
every day, and the fact that they'll have to inform all of their multitude of contacts, across various
platforms, they are doing so.
In fact, as I stated
earlier, Gmail has grown to over 400 million users. Hotmail still has over 350
million. Hotmail was deemed outdated by the ‘in crowd’ 8 years ago. Some people
still have their AOL email as their primary account. Unless Microsoft can find
a way that Google hasn’t yet mastered to lure people away from what they know,
it could be a long road for them as well.
Then again, I also stated that virtually everyone that has
ever touched a PC at work has used Microsoft Outlook. (And they’ve also used
Office - PPT, Word, XLS, etc. which comes with the switchover to Outlook.com -
free - along with the fact it will be considered secure by users. Also to be
considered is the ease of integration.) Love it or hate it, people know this
software, even among Mac users. Add the functionality and social media
aggregation and I think they may have found themselves a winner.
I could be wrong, but my bet is on the company Bill built.
